It is challenging for inexperienced investors to make sound investment decisions when dealing with the famously volatile nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The “stock-to-flow” (SF) model helps to make an informed decision in light of these issues.
Investments in the cryptocurrency market rely on making educated guesses about the direction various assets’ values will take. Using a stock-to-flow ratio can help in this endeavour. If production continues at its current rate, it will take an estimated number of years (in years) to reach the existing stock (supply). Generally speaking, the greater the number, the more expensive it is.
The SF ratio has traditionally been connected with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, making it a popular approach for predicting future BTC price estimates. In terms of scarce digital objects, Bitcoin is the first and best-known. Only 21 million coins will be produced, much like silver and gold.
The concept of “stock-to-flow” uses the fact that Bitcoin’s scarcity raises the currency’s value. The stock-to-flow ratio predicts Bitcoin’s value by analysing its digital scarcity.
For price forecasts, is the Bitcoin stock-to-flow method accurate or not? Stock-to-flow is in lucid explanation, along with examples of how you might use it to make cryptocurrency investments.
The Scarcity Of Bitcoin And Stock-To-Flow Ratio
According to American cryptographer and computer scientist Nick Szabo, scarcity provides “unforgeable costliness” and gives an object its intrinsic value.
Concerning Bitcoin, the underlying technology ensures that the number of new coins issued diminishes with time, making them more valuable. The miner calculates the hash needed to produce a proof-of-work for a block of transactions that receives a “block reward.”
Bitcoin halving is when there is a halving of the block reward for the 210,000 blocks.
After a peak of 50 BTC in 2009, the block reward has fallen to 25 BTC, 12.5 BTC in 2016, and 6.25 BTC in 2020. Spring of 2024 will see the next halving.
Half of Bitcoin’s supply has caused its price to soar in the past. To choose when to buy in BTC, investors might utilise scarcity measures because the cost of BTC rises as the quantity of the cryptocurrency decreases.
Often than not, the stock-to-flow approach determines the value shift. If an asset is currently in stock, it is in comparison to the rate of new products or the rate of its generation in a year. The higher the ratio, the more valuable the item is likely. An anonymous former institutional investor in the Netherlands known as “PlanB” popularised the Bitcoin stock-to-flow ratio.
Gold and silver were the first to use stock-to-flow, but it has since been adopted by the cryptocurrency community, mainly for BTC. Because Bitcoin is so scarce and expensive to produce, supply and demand would play the most critical roles in determining its value.
Because of the frequent halving in the Bitcoin network, production is more widespread than it would be in the gold mining sector due to technological advances.
In addition, unlike gold and silver, you cannot use cryptocurrency to buy or sell anything tangible. Consequently, each cryptocurrency token represents a potential supply, as investors can sell their entire portfolio anytime. That is why you may measure the value of cryptocurrency in terms of the stock-to-flow ratio, not by looking at absolute price levels.
You can predict Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio much more quickly because of the relatively regular inflow, but this isn’t always optimal. As Bitcoin develops as an asset, macro variables will progressively affect its price.
Stock-To-Flow Ratio Formula
SF = stock/flow
Stock means existing reserves or stockpiles
Flow means annual production
Let us take a look at the formula behind Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio. It now holds 18,847,331 BTC (89.74 per cent of the entire supply), which is 328,500 BTC annually. As you mine new blocks, the stock price fluctuates around every 10 minutes.
For the stock/flow formula, these numbers yield a ratio of 57.374: 18,847,331/328,500. The current supply of BTC would take approximately 57 years to mine (without taking the whole collection and halvings into account).
Because of this, Bitcoin halvings enhance the S2F ratio by increasing scarcity, which in turn increases the value of Bitcoin. Investors need to know why Bitcoin is categorised as a currency rather than a commodity to make informed decisions.
Is Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Accurate For Price Predictions?
Though there has been some historical correlation between the Bitcoin SF ratio and the BTC price, severe limitations are hinging the methodology when projecting future value swings of digital assets.
The model, for example, takes into account Bitcoin’s supply but does not take into account demand. There are two primary determinants of asset value: supply and demand. As a result, even though BTC’s SF ratio rises every four years during halving events, its price will plummet considerably if the market falls significantly.
Bitcoin’s price may be affected by the following factors that are not taken into consideration by this model’s stock-to-flow assumptions:
1. Volatility: volatility has decreased substantially in recent years, but Bitcoin remains prone to substantial price fluctuations. Panic selling by investors after a significant value loss during a highly volatile time could result in the closure of investors’ long positions and lead to a substantial drop in the BTC price.
2. Black San Events: In economics, black swan events are rare occurrences that can significantly impact an asset’s value. A big governmental crackdown that prevents anyone from purchasing or trading in cryptocurrencies might be a Bitcoin black swan occurrence. The price of BTC may fall if such a scenario arises.
How To Invest In Cryptocurrency Using The Stock-To-Flow Model
Cryptocurrency traders may benefit from familiarising themselves with the stock-to-flow method despite its shortcomings. An increase in the stock-to-flow ratio is expected to increase a cryptocurrency’s value, according to the historical model. You can make an investment decision with the help of this relationship.
There is an increased likelihood that values will rise if there is a high stock-to-flow ratio of 50 or more. For the moment, the current high price of cryptocurrencies may tempt an investor into selling some of their holdings. Alternatively, if the ratio is low but has the probability of climbing shortly, they might purchase more.
The stock-to-flow ratio in cryptocurrency can be a sound financial strategy, despite its limitations. One should consider using this model when looking at investing in cryptocurrencies.